Fire ExiaTier 1
at PTM Store Champs
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-5-0
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.4%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1258
· median 1258
· range 1169–1347
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
918
Q1 1187
Q3 1345
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -2.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
